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Fiscal easing in China and Germany will cushion the impact of higher US import tariffs, but growth in. In 2026, modest consumption growth will likely lead to excess supply opening up earlier than the BoE anticipates, exacerbated by our expectation of a material slowdown in the US.
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2025 Numbers Fanya Jemimah . We have cut both our US 2025 growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.1% in the December 2024 Global Economic Outlook (GEO) and our 2026 forecast to 1.5% from 1.7% We expect a pause in cuts at 4.25% in March but resuming in the second half of 2026 to 3.50% as growth slows.
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